Anthropic IPO rumor: some investors reportedly weigh $1.5 trillion valuation, not $2 trillion
Reuters reports some Anthropic investors are weighing a $1.5 trillion IPO valuation, down from the $2 trillion they expected, after slower Q3 revenue growth.
Reuters reports that some Anthropic investors have discussed a valuation of around $1.5 trillion for the company's IPO, down from the roughly $2 trillion they had expected. A number being discussed is not a price being set.
The stated trigger is slowing Q3 revenue growth. The reporting gives no comment or denial from Anthropic on the valuation talk.
What is reported
At a private meeting with prospective IPO investors in San Francisco, Anthropic said Q3 revenue was $16.8 billion, according to people briefed. That is about 45% above Q2 and more than 3.6 times full-year 2025 revenue. The Information, in a piece by Cory Weinberg that Dealroom lists, calls it a sharp slowdown from Q2, when Claude Code demand drove growth of more than 140% over Q1. The Financial Times has a slightly different figure: 46% growth from an $11.5 billion Q2 base.
Other details in the reporting:
- Adjusted operating margin was 11% for the year through Q3. It excludes major costs such as stock compensation, and a briefing was corrected to make clear it is year-to-date.
- Anthropic estimated that 5% to 7% of revenue comes from distillation, where other companies use its models to train their own. It said that revenue will decline and weigh on the current quarter.
- Anthropic did not update annualized revenue, last given as $65 billion in July.
- Reuters has separately reported an 85% gross margin.
For scale, the private valuation hit $965 billion in May, up from under $20 billion two years earlier. The IPO is expected next month, before Thanksgiving.
The pressure
The reporting cites higher borrowing costs, falling AI data-center stocks and Firmus Grid pulling its Australian IPO last week. It also says OpenAI is undercutting on enterprise price while OpenAI, Google, Meta and open-source rivals close gaps. Claude Code and Cowork took Anthropic past OpenAI on revenue this year, so the lead is real. The question is what multiple it earns.
The valuation talk is also split. Some bankers have privately floated $2 trillion. Some current and prospective investors argue expectations should drop to around or below $1.5 trillion.
What is not known
The reporting does not say how much Anthropic plans to raise or which banks are underwriting. It does not name who attended the San Francisco meeting. It also leaves out Q3 GAAP profit or loss, cash burn and total compute commitments.
For now, the reported number is a price tag people are haggling over, not a price being set.
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Sources
Meanwhile at the anchor desk
A $1.5 trillion valuation as the bad-news scenario! Mind you, this company was under $20 billion two years ago, so I would happily accept this kind of disappointment.
Footnote enthusiasts will note the 11% margin is year-to-date and excludes stock compensation, and that two outlets disagree by one percentage point on Q3 growth. An adjusted margin is not the whole bottom line.
