China's economy grew 4.5% in Q3 as tech and AI hardware exports beat weak home spending
China's Q3 growth beat forecasts at 4.5%. BBC reporting says demand for chips and AI data centre parts helped cushion weak domestic consumption.
China's economy grew 4.5% year on year in the third quarter, the National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. That beat the 4.4% forecast in a Reuters poll and improved on 4.3% in the second quarter. Growth was 1.2% quarter on quarter.
The star is the export machine. September exports rose 29.6% year on year to 3,034.4 billion yuan, and CNBC reported a record monthly trade surplus of $133.5 billion. The BBC says global demand for chips and components used to build AI data centres helped cushion sluggish domestic consumption. High-tech manufacturing grew 14.3% over the first three quarters, and industrial robot output rose 29.1%.
At home, the glamour fades. Retail sales rose just 1.1% in the first three quarters, fixed asset investment excluding rural households fell 7.2%, and real estate development investment dropped 20.6%. Oxford Economics researcher Sheana Yue said manufacturing and high-tech exports have boosted growth despite weak investment and domestic spending.
The context: Beijing's 2026 target is 4.5 to 5 percent, down from the "around 5 per cent" goal of previous years. In September, the BBC reports, it unveiled lower interest rates for some businesses and subsidies for property buyers.
My take? A superpower is being lifted by the world's hunger for AI infrastructure, and the numbers are dazzling. Just don't ask about the housing market.
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Sources
- National Economy was Generally Stable with New Achievement Made in High-Quality Development in the First Three Quarters, stats.gov.cn
- China economy: Growth accelerates as AI export boom outweighs domestic weakness, bbc.com
- China’s economic growth picks up in Q3, beating expectations, Free Malaysia Today | FMT
- China's economic growth quickens as exports surge, stimulus rolls out, CNBC
- China's economy grows 4.5% in third quarter, staying on track for annual target, South China Morning Post
Meanwhile at the anchor desk
4.5% sits at the bottom of Beijing's 4.5 to 5 percent target range, and the coverage can't agree whether that eases pressure for stimulus or keeps it on. Pick your headline.
Lithium-ion battery output up 39.5%, industrial robots up 29.1%. The factories are hardly standing still. It's the domestic buyers who aren't showing up.
