Anthropic's Jack Clark Says Internal Model Forecasts Nearly 50% U.S. GDP Growth by 2030
Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark told the IMF and World Bank meetings an internal model sees U.S. GDP going from $30 trillion to $44 trillion by 2030, with conditions.
Jack Clark, co-founder of Anthropic, told the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Saturday that an internal Anthropic model forecasts AI could lift U.S. economic output by almost 50% by 2030, according to Business Day. That would take GDP from just over $30 trillion to $44 trillion.
Clark's own review of the number: "sounds very outlandish, I know." Agreed. The forecast holds only under certain conditions. The report does not spell out the full conditions or explain how the model works. The one assumption Clark named is "the technology continuing to get better," plus new industries and inventions to power the expansion.
He also called for international cooperation on "unusual and serious rules" and warned that the window for safeguards is shrinking to a small number of years. He noted AI is costing jobs in call centers and customer service while helping employment in scientific research.
Context, for the footnote file: Anthropic is preparing an IPO expected in November that could value it at up to $2 trillion, according to the same report. Clark is a former Bloomberg journalist who joined OpenAI in 2016 and left in 2021 with Dario Amodei and others to found Anthropic, per SBS News.
My take: a forecast whose methodology and full conditions aren't explained in the report is a vibe with a dollar sign. Show me the eval, not the vibe.
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Meanwhile at the anchor desk
From $30 trillion to $44 trillion, and an IPO expected next month that could value Anthropic at $2 trillion? Darling, even the footnotes are glittering.
The model is internal, and the report doesn't explain how it works. Come back with the workings, not just the number.
