Anthropic's draft IPO prospectus points to $750 billion in computing spend

Anthropic could spend as much as $750 billion on computing capacity in the coming years, including hundreds of billions of dollars in non-cancelable deals, according to a draft prospectus viewed by The Wall Street Journal. Semafor relayed the figures, as the company builds toward an IPO that could value it at $2 trillion.

Seven hundred fifty billion dollars. Say it slowly, let it shimmer, and then notice that the number comes with fine print, which is where the real drama lives.

How the $750 billion adds up

The figure is a blend of money already promised and money still being negotiated. According to the WSJ via Axios, the company already faces more than $600 billion in future infrastructure costs and is negotiating additional deals that could add another $150 billion. Whether those talks become binding agreements is not yet known.

Other outlets slice the commitments differently, and these reports do not reconcile the numbers. Reuters, via Ctech, reports at least $518 billion over a decade. The WSJ, via Business Standard, reports roughly $450 billion over seven to 10 years, including $111 billion with Google Cloud, $110 billion with Amazon Web Services and $31 billion with Microsoft. Same prospectus, three different totals. Grand, yes, but not yet tidy.

The revenue is racing too

The revenue story is the reason anyone would sign for a bill like this. Anthropic generated $16.3 billion in the first half of 2026, up from $1.1 billion a year earlier, the WSJ reported. Revenue more than doubled between the first and second quarters, reaching $11.6 billion in Q2.

On October 14, Anthropic told prospective IPO investors that third-quarter revenue rose 45% from the previous quarter to $16.8 billion, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Reuters credits demand for Claude Code, the company's coding assistant for developers, as one driver. Growth slowed from the Q2 pace, and what caused that is an open question.

Then the losses, which look dramatic but need context. Reuters reported a first-half net loss of $80.7 billion, most of it a $72 billion non-operating charge tied to the higher estimated fair value of convertible bonds. For all of 2025, the net loss was $42 billion, while the operating loss was about $8.1 billion on $4.6 billion in revenue. Our earlier story on the filing walks through the accounting.

Computing is where the spending is already visible. Anthropic spent nearly $9 billion on capacity and infrastructure in the first half of 2026, against $2.3 billion a year earlier. That is more than the $7.3 billion it spent in all of 2025, according to the Journal.

The risks in the room

The same filing, which was leaked to the WSJ, is candid about the downside. Anthropic is having trouble securing enough cloud capacity from AWS, Google and Microsoft, which increasingly see the Claude maker as a competitor rather than a customer, according to the WSJ report. The company is leasing its own data centers and working with third-party operators, but it worries those operators have a "limited operating history," which could make them less reliable than the hyperscalers.

The customer base is narrow too. Two customers accounted for about 20% of first-half sales, per the WSJ. The draft lists a narrow customer base and uncertain access to computing power among its risks. The reporting does not say who the two customers are.

The valuation chatter is just as lavish. Semafor puts the IPO at a possible $2 trillion, while Reuters reported that some investors are considering around $1.5 trillion. Across town, OpenAI is accelerating a financing round that could put its valuation at $1.4 trillion, according to Reuters, after it raised more than $120 billion in its most recent round. Citadel's Ken Griffin, for his part, said the market was "almost certainly" in a bubble.

The broader listing market is a curious backdrop. According to Renaissance Capital, the number of U.S. IPOs priced in 2026 is down 33% from 2025, even though proceeds are up sharply thanks to mega-cap debuts such as SpaceX in June.

What to watch

Anthropic is targeting a November debut after confidentially filing with the SEC in early June. The cited reporting does not specify the exact date, share count, price or capital target. As of Monday, October 19, Kalshi gave Anthropic 75% odds of officially announcing an IPO this year.

Watch three things. First, whether the extra $150 billion in negotiations turns into signed contracts. Second, whether the hyperscalers that supply the capacity keep treating their customer as a rival. Third, whether public investors will pay a trillion-dollar-plus price for a company that has put hundreds of billions of dollars of non-cancelable obligations in writing.

The ambition here is staggering, the leaked paperwork makes quite a read, and the market will vote soon. Magnificent, and I mean it.