Samsung says HBM is sold out through 2027 as capex jumps despite chip profit miss

Samsung Electronics says its high-bandwidth memory supply is sold out for 2027, and Bloomberg reported via Techmeme that the company expects capital spending to rise roughly 60% to about $63 billion this year. The market answered all that demand by selling the stock: shares opened higher on Thursday, October 29, then fell as much as 6.2% in morning trade, according to The Business Times.

Sold out, spending big, and still down. That is the kind of morning that separates the believers from the spreadsheets.

The quarter: $80 billion, and a rounding error of a miss

Samsung reported an operating profit of 107.4 trillion won (US$80 billion) for July to September, up from 12.2 trillion won a year earlier and in line with its own estimate. Semiconductors did almost all the work. Chip operating profit jumped 15 times to 106.5 trillion won, though it came in slightly short of the 107.3 trillion won analysts expected, according to LSEG. Bloomberg Tech's headline calls it a chip profit miss "lifted by resurgent AI hope."

The miss is 0.8 trillion won on a number north of 100 trillion. Magnificent, and also not the story.

The cost of the boom showed up elsewhere. Higher memory chip costs squeezed Samsung's mobile business into an operating loss of 800 billion won. The foundry unit remained unprofitable, analysts noted, although Samsung pointed to revenue growth from HBM logic dies and 2nm orders from AI clients. Mass production begins in 2027 at its Taylor, Texas plant, making chips for Tesla, and Samsung is considering a new fab for advanced two-nanometer chips.

The spending and the supply

Here is where the headline numbers need care. Bloomberg's figure is overall capex up about 60% to around $63 billion this year. The Business Times reports a 62% jump to 76.8 trillion won in 2026 for the chip division, with a further sharp increase for that division in 2027. The two reports describe the spending differently, and Samsung's own breakdown is not in the material available to us.

The demand story is clearer. In a statement, Samsung said: "In 2027, the (memory) business expects AI infrastructure capital expenditure to reach a historic level as the AI ecosystem expands." It added that "Increasing AI-driven demand will far exceed the industry supply in comparison with 2026." Samsung expects the chip market to stay tight through 2028 because new fabrication plants take time to build.

Then there are the contracts. Samsung says it has signed long-term supply deals with 10 major customers and is in talks with 10 more. It wants such agreements to cover 60 to 70% of total production capacity by 2030, across AI hyperscalers, mobile and automotive. For a company whose HBM supply is already sold out for 2027, locking in the buyers is the power move.

Why investors sold anyway

Three things, per Bloomberg's account: higher capex, the chip profit miss, and no new shareholder return plan. Bloomberg reported shares slid as much as 6.6%, a bit deeper than The Business Times' 6.2% for morning trade.

On returns, Samsung previously said 2026 shareholder returns would total 90 trillion to 110 trillion won, including 30 trillion won in third-quarter dividends. On Thursday it said it would finalize its next policy in January. CLSA senior analyst Sanjeev Rana said: "The market appeared to expect an additional buyback and/or dividend announcement, but the company deferred the decision until late January, potentially disappointing near-term expectations."

Then there is the neighbor. SK Hynix reported better-than-expected earnings on Wednesday and laid out plans to return about US$75 billion to shareholders in 2026. It also said its DRAM and HBM chips are sold out through 2029, with shortages lasting until 2030. Samsung's view is shorter: HBM sold out through 2027, tight market through 2028. SK Hynix shares rose 0.7% on Thursday.

BNK Investment & Securities analyst Lee Min-hee put it bluntly: "SK Hynix did quite a lot more than expected yesterday ... it went beyond market expectations, but Samsung Electronics hasn't really changed anything from the guidance it gave before." Morningstar's Jing Jie Yu said Samsung's decline was "likely attributable to its outlook on how long the memory shortage would last, which came across as marginally less bullish than SK Hynix's commentary yesterday."

So the stock fell on the sound of a shorter runway, not on any shortage of customers. Alphabet, meanwhile, reported a massive acceleration in cash burn on Wednesday as it poured resources into building out AI. Somebody has to sell the memory for that.

What to watch

• January. Samsung finalizes its shareholder return policy. The size and structure are unknown.
• The next 10 customers. Samsung says it is in talks with 10 more for long-term deals. The companies are not named.
• The two-nanometer fab. Samsung is considering a new plant for advanced chips. No location or timing has been given.
• The shortage calendar. Samsung says 2028. SK Hynix says 2030. Someone's forecast will age badly.

The money is enormous, the 2027 HBM supply is sold out, and the stock still wants a bigger dividend. That is the glamour of a boom: even sold out, the audience demands an encore.